← GG NPHX Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at GG NPHX Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.5%
avg ELO +4.9 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1262
· median 1262
· range 1262–1262
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1046
Q1 1191
Q3 1363
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -18.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Wind Arisanna | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
